Probabilistic delivery forecasting

Stop lying about deadlines.

Gantt charts are lies. A single delivery date is a guess dressed up as a plan. Intervals shows you 10,000 futures — and what the real distribution of outcomes looks like.

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Gantt charts are lies.

A fixed deadline tells you nothing about the probability of hitting it. It just moves the uncertainty off the chart and into a post-mortem.

10,000 futures.

Each simulation run draws a different scope and a different velocity from plausible ranges. The result is a distribution — not a point, not a range of two.

The team's real track record.

After a few cycles, the forecast switches to your actual throughput values. No blending, no black box — just what your team has actually shipped.

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Adjust the inputs and watch the forecast update live. Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored.

Scope (items)
Scope creep1.30× → ≈46 simulated
Throughput / cycle
Optimistic
Aug 24 – Sep 7
6–7 cycles · 50–70%
Likely
Sep 7 – Sep 21
7–8 cycles · 70–85%
Projected
Sep 21 – Oct 19
8–10 cycles · 85–95%
Conservative
by Oct 19
10 cycles · 95%+
Distribution of 10,000 simulated outcomes?10,000 / 10,000
Distribution of 10,000 simulated outcomes from 3 to 13 cycles; 70% finish within ≤ 7, 85% within ≤ 8, 95% within ≤ 10 cycles.
10,000simulated futures per run
4confidence bands, not one date
0stored data — runs in your browser

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